Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Flex Portfolio Performance Through January 2013

Global stock markets have been rising strongly.  This is despite global-macro economic and geopolitical concerns--very slow growth in USA, continued economic troubles in Europe, China slowing, Japan still in a rut, flare-ups exacerbating problems and potential for more in the middle east.  I sense that the U.S. Federal Reserve's pretty much open-ended commitment to buying Treasury debt (funding deficit spending in effort to keep the economy afloat while it tries to learn how to swim again) is creating an artificial wave that stock investors are willing to surf.  For now.

This is why I favor a global/flexible portfolio management approach.  My "Flex" portfolios are the best way I know to implement such.

Yes, diversified portfolios have struggled to keep pace with the stock markets, but that is understandable because such are invested at most around 80% in stocks, and perhaps as little as 20%.

What is more important to compare is portfolio performance against the correct blended benchmark.  A moderate-risk investor should be about 60-40 stocks-bonds, for example, and thus would compare to a benchmark of 60% stock indexes and 40% bond indexes--not merely the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500 index.

This is where the Flex portfolios are doing their jobs well.  They are outperforming their benchmarks, as you can see in the data below, and doing so with much less volatility (a measure of risk).

While I do not ignore short-term performance comparisons, I believe it is most relevant and prudent to consider 3-, 5-, and 10-year time periods when comparing portfolios to each other and/or to their benchmarks.


US and Foreign Indexes 1 mo 3 mo YTD 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 10 yr
Stock Markets (50-40-10) 4.8% 8.6% 4.8% 15.7% 6.0% 10.2% 1.6% 9.1%
S&P 500 5.2% 6.8% 5.2% 16.8% 10.3% 14.1% 4.0% 7.9%
MSCI EAFE 5.3% 11.3% 5.3% 17.3% 3.0% 6.9% -0.8% 9.2%
Barclays Agg Bond--US -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% 2.6% 5.6% 5.4% 5.5% 5.1%
Barclays Agg Bond--Global -0.9% -1.3% -0.9% 1.7% 4.4% 4.7% 4.7% 5.8%









Moderately Aggressive 4.0% 5.6% 4.0% 13.4% 6.0% 9.0% 1.8% 7.6%
80 Flex IV 2.6% 4.9% 2.6% 9.3% 6.9% 9.5% 7.0% 10.1%
80 Flex III 2.8% 5.4% 2.8% 10.3% 6.6% 9.2%

80 Fidelity 3.8% 7.2% 3.8% 13.6% 5.8% 9.2% 1.9% 7.7%









Moderate 2.7% 4.8% 2.7% 10.1% 5.5% 7.8% 2.3% 6.9%
60 Flex IV 2.5% 5.0% 2.5% 10.7% 7.4% 9.6% 7.3% 10.2%
60 Flex III 2.2% 4.6% 2.2% 10.7% 7.1% 9.4%

60 Vanguard 2.5% 4.9% 2.5% 11.0% 6.4% 8.7% 2.8% 7.0%









Moderately Conservative 1.5% 2.8% 1.5% 6.9% 5.2% 6.7% 2.9% 6.2%
40 Flex IV 1.8% 4.2% 1.8% 11.0% 7.7% 9.6% 7.7% 9.7%
40 Vanguard 1.4% 3.0% 1.4% 8.3% 6.3% 7.7% 3.6% 6.3%









Asset Allocation Cash Stock Bond Other



80 Flex IV 24% 45% 21% 10%



60 Flex IV 21% 40% 30% 9%



40 Flex IV 23% 26% 43% 8%



Saturday, February 2, 2013