Portfolio Model Performance Through September 2015

Here are performance #s for the portfolios I run for most of my clients, and some alternatives for comparison.

I recommend moving from the Flex models to Strategic models.  Please contact me with any questions.

Thank you!

--Gary Partoyan

US and Foreign Indexes		3 mo	1 yr	3 yr	5 yr	10 yr	2008
Stock Markets (50-40-10)		-8.4%	-5.7%	7.9%	7.8%	5.0%	-39.7%
S&P 500		-6.4%	-0.6%	12.4%	13.3%	6.8%	-37.0%
MSCI EAFE		-10.2%	-8.7%	5.6%	4.0%	3.0%	-43.4%
US OE Diversified Emg Mkts		-15.9%	-18.8%	-4.1%	-3.4%	3.8%	-54.4%
Barclays Agg Bond--US		1.2%	2.9%	1.2%	3.1%	4.6%	5.2%
Barclays Agg Bond--Global		0.9%	-3.3%	-1.6%	0.8%	3.7%	4.8%
Aggressive		-7.4%	-4.1%	8.2%	8.0%	4.9%	-36.3%
95 Flex V		-7.5%	-6.0%	5.6%	6.4%		-19.1%
95 Strategic II		-8.3%	-3.1%	9.6%	10.3%	7.8%	-35.9%
95 Schwab index		-9.0%	-2.9%	9.4%	9.4%	5.7%	-37.2%
Confluence Value Opportunities		-5.7%	7.7%	22.9%	19.0%	12.2%	-22.3%
WealthFront 9		-9.7%	-7.3%	5.1%	5.9%		-38.0%
Moderately Aggressive		-6.4%	-3.6%	7.2%	7.4%	5.0%	-32.0%
80 Flex V		-7.0%	-5.6%	5.2%	6.1%	7.1%	-16.9%
80 Strategic II		-7.4%	-3.4%	7.7%	8.6%	7.3%	-30.0%
80 USA tilt		-6.7%	-2.4%	8.2%	9.0%	6.8%	-28.5%
80 Schwab index (muni)		-7.1%	-1.9%	8.3%	8.5%	5.5%	-32.3%
Moderate		-4.5%	-2.6%	5.4%	6.0%	4.9%	-23.1%
60 Flex V		-6.2%	-5.0%	4.7%	5.9%		-13.1%
60 Strategic II		-6.0%	-3.0%	6.2%	7.5%	6.9%	-23.9%
60 Schwab index (muni)		-4.9%	-0.5%	7.2%	7.8%	5.5%	-26.4%
Goldman Sachs Income Builder		-5.0%	-4.4%	5.7%	7.8%	5.7%	-23.3%
American Funds Balanced Port		-4.2%	-0.8%	7.6%	8.2%	5.9%	-28.2%
Moderately Conservative		-2.6%	-1.6%	3.6%	4.6%	4.8%	-13.3%
40 Flex V		-5.4%	-4.6%	4.4%	5.9%		-13.3%
40 Strategic II		-4.7%	-2.5%	6.1%	7.0%	6.9%	-17.7%
40 Schwab Index (muni)		-2.8%	0.8%	5.8%	6.8%	5.2%	-20.1%
Conservative		-0.6%	-0.7%	1.7%	3.2%	4.5%	-2.5%
20 Flex V		-4.4%	-3.8%	3.6%	5.5%		-5.2%
20 Strategic II		-3.3%	-2.1%	4.5%	5.5%	6.1%	-10.5%
20 Schwab index (muni)		-0.8%	1.8%	4.3%	5.4%	4.7%	-13.7%
NOTE 1:  Past performance is no guarantee of specific future results.  This data is presented by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  This data is from Morningstar and should be accurate, but it has not been independently verified.
NOTE 2:  "Flex", "Strategic", and "Index" models are crafted/run by Potomac Wealth Strategies.  They show history of better returns, lower volatility, or both--or, with the Index models, closer tracking--vs benchmarks and competitors.
NOTE 3:  "XX Schwab index" models are low-cost portfolios.  They are comprised of index funds available free of transaction charges to my clients at Schwab.  This is what many might recommend due to low-costs and portfolio efficiency.
NOTE 4:  Nothing on this blog post represents investment advice to any individual or organization.  If the information hereon is of interest to you, please contact me at Garo.Partoyan@PotomacWealthStrategies.com for a consultation.

Market Decline Perspective From Gary P and Bill O'Grady

Good morning.  The U.S. stock market has declined significantly this week, reacting to several factors.  I believe the markets must "correct" occasionally (dropping 10% or so from recent highs), and it's been a long time since that has happened (~mid-2011).  This may be the time for it, and we could be a good deal of the way through it already.

Still, I recommend long-term investors remain invested and diversified.

Trying to time the market is risky and the results are usually not successful.  There is Nobel Prize-winning research supporting the "asset allocation" methodology I employ for most of my clients' long-term money (retirement, college savings).

As is often the case, Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management offers a brief and helpful view of current conditions:  http://confluenceinvestment.com/assets/docs/2015/daily_Aug_21_2015.pdf

If you have any questions, please contact me.  Thank you, and happy Friday!

--Gary

P.S.--Are you prepared for financial emergencies?  Let's make sure we're evaluating your cash reserves, your Disability Insurance, your Life Insurance, and your estate plan.  I don't sell insurance and I don't draft legal documents, but I will coach you on how to make sure you buy the right product and have the right documents in place.  No charge--it's part of the value I want to add to the investment advice already being provided.

Garo Linck Partoyan

Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC

(703) 746-8195 direct

Visit us online for helpful ideas and information!

Portfolio Model Performance through June 2015

US and Foreign Indexes		3 mo	1 yr	3 yr	5 yr	10 yr	2008
Stock Markets (50-40-10)		0.3%	1.1%	13.5%	12.9%	6.8%	-39.7%
S&P 500		0.3%	7.4%	17.3%	17.3%	7.9%	-37.0%
MSCI EAFE		0.6%	-4.2%	12.0%	9.5%	5.1%	-43.4%
US OE Diversified Emg Mkts		0.7%	-6.7%	3.8%	3.5%	7.3%	-54.4%
Barclays Agg Bond--US		-1.7%	1.9%	1.8%	3.4%	4.4%	5.2%
Barclays Agg Bond--Global		-1.2%	-7.1%	-0.8%	2.1%	3.5%	4.8%
Ibbotson Aggressive		0.2%	3.2%	14.2%	13.7%	6.9%	-35.5%
Aggressive		0.4%	1.3%	13.2%	12.3%	6.4%	-36.3%
95 Flex V		-1.4%	-0.7%	10.0%	10.1%		-19.1%
95 Strategic II		-0.5%	2.2%	15.1%	14.8%	9.3%	-35.9%
95 Schwab index		0.5%	2.7%	15.1%	14.3%	7.3%	-37.2%
WealthFront 9		0.5%	-0.1%	10.9%	11.0%		-38.0%
Ibbotson Moderately Aggressive		-0.1%	2.7%	11.8%	11.9%	6.6%	-28.5%
Moderately Aggressive		0.1%	0.8%	11.7%	11.3%	6.3%	-32.0%
80 Flex V		-1.2%	-0.6%	9.5%	9.7%		-16.9%
80 Strategic II		-0.7%	1.3%	12.6%	12.5%	8.6%	-30.0%
80 Schwab index		0.1%	2.6%	12.6%	12.3%	6.7%	-32.1%
Ibbotson Moderate		-0.3%	2.4%	9.4%	10.0%	6.1%	-21.2%
Moderate		-0.3%	0.0%	8.7%	9.2%	5.8%	-23.1%
60 Flex V		-0.8%	-0.3%	8.7%	9.1%		-13.1%
60 Strategic II		-0.8%	0.9%	10.2%	10.6%	7.9%	-23.9%
60 Schwab index		-0.3%	2.7%	9.9%	10.2%	6.0%	-25.6%
Goldman Sachs Income Builder		-0.7%	-0.9%	9.3%	10.6%	6.4%	-23.3%
American Funds Balanced Port		-0.5%	3.1%	10.9%	11.3%	6.8%	-28.2%
Moderately Conservative		-0.6%	-0.8%	5.8%	7.0%	5.3%	-13.3%
40 Flex V		-0.6%	0.0%	8.2%	8.9%		-13.3%
40 Strategic II		-0.7%	1.4%	9.4%	9.5%	7.5%	-17.7%
40 Schwab Index		-0.8%	2.5%	7.2%	7.9%	5.1%	-18.8%
Conservative		-1.0%	-1.6%	2.9%	4.7%	4.6%	-2.5%
20 Flex V		-0.2%	0.3%	7.2%	8.0%		-5.2%
20 Strategic II		-0.8%	0.9%	6.9%	7.3%	6.5%	-10.5%
20 Schwab index		-1.2%	2.0%	4.3%	5.4%	4.0%	-11.7%
NOTE 1:  Past performance is no guarantee of specific future results.  This data is presented by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  This data is from Morningstar and should be accurate, but it has not been independently verified.
NOTE 2:  "Flex", "Strategic", and "Index" models are crafted/run by Potomac Wealth Strategies.  They show history of better returns, lower volatility, or both--or, with the Index models, closer tracking--vs benchmarks and competitors.
NOTE 3:  "XX Schwab index" models are low-cost portfolios.  They are comprised of index funds available free of transaction charges to my clients at Schwab.  This is what many might recommend due to low-costs and portfolio efficiency.
NOTE 4:  Nothing on this blog post represents investment advice to any individual or organization.  If the information hereon is of interest to you, please contact me at Garo.Partoyan@PotomacWealthStrategies.com for a consultation.

Strategic and Flex Model Performance Through May 2015

US and Foreign Indexes		3 mo	1 yr	3 yr	5 yr	10 yr	2008
Stock Markets (50-40-10)		1.4%	5.4%	16.5%	12.6%	7.2%	-39.7%
S&P 500		0.6%	11.7%	19.5%	16.4%	8.0%	-37.0%
MSCI EAFE		2.0%	-0.6%	15.5%	9.8%	5.5%	-43.4%
US OE Diversified Emg Mkts		1.3%	-2.1%	5.9%	3.9%	7.8%	-54.4%
Barclays Agg Bond--US		-0.1%	3.0%	2.2%	3.8%	4.5%	5.2%
Barclays Agg Bond--Global		-1.7%	-6.0%	-0.5%	2.5%	3.5%	4.8%
Ibbotson Aggressive		0.9%	7.0%	16.7%	13.4%	7.2%	-35.5%
Aggressive		1.2%	5.0%	15.9%	12.2%	6.7%	-36.3%
95 Flex V		-0.4%	3.0%	12.1%	10.0%	9.0%	-19.1%
95 Strategic II		0.2%	5.5%	17.2%	14.2%	9.6%	-35.9%
95 Schwab index		1.5%	6.9%	17.6%	13.6%	7.6%	-37.2%
WealthFront 9		0.9%	4.0%	13.3%	10.7%	7.5%	-38.0%
Ibbotson Moderately Aggressive		0.7%	6.0%	13.8%	11.8%	6.8%	-28.5%
Moderately Aggressive		0.9%	4.2%	14.1%	11.3%	6.6%	-32.0%
80 Flex V		-0.2%	2.9%	11.5%	9.7%	8.9%	-16.9%
80 Strategic II		0.1%	4.2%	14.5%	12.2%	8.8%	-30.0%
80 Schwab index		1.2%	6.2%	14.8%	11.9%	7.0%	-32.1%
Ibbotson Moderate		0.5%	5.1%	11.0%	9.9%	6.3%	-21.2%
Moderate		0.4%	2.8%	10.5%	9.3%	6.1%	-23.1%
60 Flex V		0.2%	2.7%	10.6%	9.2%	8.9%	-13.1%
60 Strategic II		0.0%	3.5%	11.7%	10.5%	8.2%	-23.9%
60 Schwab index		0.8%	5.7%	11.6%	10.0%	6.2%	-25.6%
Goldman Sachs Income Builder		0.8%	2.9%	11.0%	10.5%	6.6%	-23.3%
American Funds Balanced Port		0.5%	6.0%	12.8%	11.3%	7.1%	-28.2%
Moderately Conservative		0.0%	1.3%	7.1%	7.2%	5.4%	-13.3%
40 Flex V		0.3%	2.6%	10.0%	9.0%	8.9%	-13.3%
40 Strategic II		0.0%	3.8%	10.8%	9.5%	7.7%	-17.7%
40 Schwab Index		0.5%	4.8%	8.3%	7.9%	5.3%	-18.8%
Conservative		-0.4%	-0.1%	3.6%	5.1%	4.7%	-2.5%
20 Flex V		0.8%	2.4%	8.8%	8.3%	8.6%	-5.2%
20 Strategic II		-0.2%	2.9%	8.1%	7.4%	6.7%	-10.5%
20 Schwab index		0.2%	3.7%	5.1%	5.7%	4.2%	-11.7%
NOTE 1:  Past performance is no guarantee of specific future results.  This data is presented by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  This data is from Morningstar and should be accurate, but it has not been independently verified.
NOTE 2:  "Flex", "Strategic", and "Index" models are crafted/run by Potomac Wealth Strategies.  They show history of better returns, lower volatility, or both--or, with the Index models, closer tracking--vs benchmarks and competitors.
NOTE 3:  "XX Schwab index" models are low-cost portfolios.  They are comprised of index funds available free of transaction charges to my clients at Schwab.  This is what many might recommend due to low-costs and portfolio efficiency.
NOTE 4:  Nothing on this blog post represents investment advice to any individual or organization.  If the information hereon is of interest to you, please contact me at Garo.Partoyan@PotomacWealthStrategies.com for a consultation.

Strategic and Flex Portfolio Performance Through April 2015

US and Foreign Indexes		3 mo	1 yr	3 yr	5 yr	10 yr	2008
Stock Mkts (50us 40for 10em)		6.9%	7.3%	13.0%	10.4%	7.3%	-39.7%
S&P 500 (100usa)		0.6%	11.8%	19.7%	16.5%	8.1%	-37.0%
Ibbotson Aggressive		5.6%	8.5%	13.7%	11.4%	7.3%	-35.5%
Aggressive		6.1%	6.6%	12.7%	10.1%	6.8%	-36.3%
95 Flex V		2.7%	4.2%	9.8%	8.4%		-19.1%
95 Strategic II		5.5%	7.1%	14.2%	12.5%	9.8%	-35.9%
95 Schwab index		6.2%	7.5%	14.1%	11.3%	7.8%	-37.2%
WealthFront 9		6.3%	6.2%	10.4%	8.9%		-38.0%
Ibbotson Moderately Aggressive		4.3%	7.5%	11.6%	10.2%	7.0%	-28.5%
Moderately Aggressive		5.3%	5.9%	11.4%	9.5%	6.7%	-32.0%
80 Flex V		2.6%	4.0%	9.3%	8.1%		-16.9%
80 Strategic II		4.6%	5.8%	12.0%	10.7%	9.0%	-30.0%
80 Schwab index		5.0%	7.0%	12.0%	10.1%	7.2%	-32.1%
Ibbotson Moderate		3.2%	6.5%	9.4%	8.8%	6.5%	-21.2%
Moderate		3.7%	4.5%	8.7%	8.0%	6.2%	-23.1%
60 Flex V		2.5%	4.0%	8.7%	8.0%		-13.1%
60 Flex IV		1.9%	2.7%	6.7%	7.2%		-13.0%
60 Strategic II		3.5%	5.1%	10.0%	9.3%	8.3%	-23.9%
60 Schwab index		3.4%	6.6%	9.7%	8.8%	6.4%	-25.6%
Ibbotson Moderately Conservative		1.9%	5.1%	6.8%	7.1%	5.8%	-12.4%
Moderately Conservative		2.1%	3.1%	6.0%	6.5%	5.6%	-10.4%
40 Flex V		2.3%	4.0%	8.4%	7.9%		-13.3%
40 Strategic II		3.0%	5.3%	9.4%	8.5%	7.9%	-17.7%
40 Schwab Index		2.0%	5.9%	7.3%	7.2%	5.5%	-18.8%
Ibbotson Conservative		0.4%	3.2%	3.8%	5.0%	4.9%	-1.4%
Conservative		0.5%	1.6%	3.4%	4.8%	4.8%	-2.5%
20 Flex V		2.1%	3.8%	7.1%	7.4%		-5.2%
20 Strategic II		1.9%	4.1%	7.2%	6.7%	6.8%	-10.5%
20 Schwab index		0.6%	5.0%	4.7%	5.4%	4.3%	-11.7%
NOTE 1:  Past performance is no guarantee of specific future results.  This data is presented by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  This data is from Morningstar and should be accurate, but it has not been independently verified.
NOTE 2:  "Flex", "Strategic", and "Index" models are crafted/run by Potomac Wealth Strategies.  They show history of better returns, lower volatility, or both--or, with the Index models, closer tracking--vs benchmarks and competitors.
NOTE 3:  "XX Schwab index" models are low-cost portfolios.  They are comprised of index funds available free of transaction charges to my clients at Schwab.  This is what many might recommend due to low-costs and portfolio efficiency.
NOTE 4:  Nothing on this blog post represents investment advice to any individual or organization.  If the information hereon is of interest to you, please contact me at Garo.Partoyan@PotomacWealthStrategies.com for a consultation.