Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Market and Economic Insights from Prof. Jeremy Siegel, 2019-11

Lots of informative insight from one of the long-time trusted investment experts, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel.  Quick take:

·        stocks are fairly valued, not overpriced

·        value stocks will soon take over performance leadership from growth stocks, largely because their dividends are higher than the interest rates of bonds and we have increasing population of retirees needing investment income instead of growth and they'll seek dividends over bond interest more than ever

·        interest rates are low more because of economic factors than the strategies of major central banks

·        inflation is low and should stay low

·        economic growth in USA is low-ish, but no recession any time soon

·        workforce participation #s are improving (the "unemployment rate" gets the most attention, but workforce participation rate is arguably just as important)

·        predicts Trump will be impeached by the House, but not removed from office by the Senate

·        predicts House stays Dem, Senate stays Republican

·        says "trade war" with China is biggest economic threat and having one would trigger big drop in stock markets, but that Trump will avoid trade war because it would ruin him politically

For my clients' investments, I continue to recommend diversified portfolios.  Whether to be aggressive or moderate or conservative, or in-between, in that diversification is something with which I can be especially helpful.

Contact me with any questions.