Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Portfolio Model Returns Through October 2016


US and Foreign Indexes
3 mo 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 10 yr 2008
Stock Markets (72-21-7)
-1.1% 3.3% 2.7% 5.8% 10.8% 5.3% -41.0%
S&P 500
-2.2% 2.3% 2.6% 6.6% 11.2% 4.4% -38.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Avg
-1.6% 2.7% 2.1% 5.3% 8.7% 4.2% -33.8%
MSCI EAFE
-1.4% -6.0% -4.3% -3.9% 2.1% -1.6% -45.1%
MSCI EM
3.6% 6.8% -5.6% -4.4% -1.9% 1.1% -54.5%
Barclays Agg Bond--US
-0.9% 4.4% 3.2% 3.5% 2.9% 4.6% 5.2%
Citi WGBI nonUSD (foreign bonds)
-4.6% 7.3% 0.3% -0.7% -0.9% 3.3% 10.1%









Aggressive (90% stocks-10% bonds)
-2.1% 1.2% 0.0% 2.3% 6.7% 3.3% -36.0%
95 Strategic III
-1.3% 4.3% 3.4% 5.4% 10.1% 7.6% -30.9%
95 Schwab index
-1.4% 2.6% 2.5% 5.0% 10.2% 5.4% -34.6%
95 Strategic USA II
-1.2% 3.3% 3.8% 6.6% 12.3% 9.2% -25.8%
Confluence Value Opportunities






-22.3%
Confluence Equity Income






-18.9%
WealthFront 9
-0.5% 4.2% 0.5% 2.8% 7.1% 4.4% -38.1%
American Funds Port Ser Growth
-0.3% 3.3% 3.4% 5.7% 11.1% 6.1% -40.8%
American Funds Port Ser Global Growth
-0.7% 1.8% 1.3% 3.4% 9.3% 5.7% -40.5%









Moderately Aggressive (75-25)
-1.7% 1.6% 0.3% 2.3% 5.9% 3.5% -31.0%
80 Flex IV
-0.8% 3.2% 0.6% 1.8% 5.5%

80 Flex V
-1.7% 1.3% 0.2% 2.0% 6.2%
-16.9%
80 Strategic II
0.3% 3.0% 1.7% 3.4% 8.9% 6.7% -30.2%
80 Strategic III
-1.0% 4.5% 3.4% 5.3% 9.5% 7.5% -27.7%
80 USA tilt
-0.3% 2.5% 1.7% 3.7% 8.9% 6.3% -28.5%
80 Schwab index
-1.4% 2.9% 2.7% 5.1% 9.4% 5.4% -30.6%
Money 75
-0.2% 4.3% 2.7% 4.6% 8.7% 5.8% -32.7%
American Funds Port Ser Gr+Inc
-1.6% 3.9% 2.3% 5.0% 9.2% 5.3% -30.8%









Moderate (60-40)
-1.4% 2.2% 0.8% 2.3% 5.2% 3.7% -25.6%
60 Flex V
-0.7% 1.9% 0.5% 2.2% 6.1% 6.7% -13.1%
60 Strategic III
0.9% 4.5% 3.1% 4.7% 8.3% 7.1% -23.3%
60 Schwab index
-1.2% 2.8% 2.3% 3.9% 7.3% 4.6% -25.6%
American Funds Port Ser Balanced
-1.2% 3.4% 2.8% 4.7% 8.3% 5.4% -28.3%









Moderately Conservative (40-60)
-0.8% 2.4% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.7% -17.4%
40 Strategic III
-0.1% 4.6% 2.7% 4.0% 6.7% 6.7% -16.4%
40 Schwab Index
-1.2% 3.2% 2.8% 4.7% 6.9% 4.8% -19.7%
Goldman Sachs Income Builder
0.4% 3.0% 1.2% 3.1% 7.3% 5.4% -23.3%









Conservative (20-80)
-0.4% 2.9% 1.1% 1.6% 2.6% 3.6% -8.4%
20 Strategic III
0.8% 3.8% 1.3% 2.1% 3.9% 5.1% -9.3%
20 Schwab index
-1.1% 3.3% 3.0% 4.7% 5.8% 4.4% -13.9%


















NOTE 1:  Past performance is no guarantee of specific future results.  This data is presented by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  This data is from Morningstar and should be accurate, but it has not been independently verified.









NOTE 2:  "Flex", "Strategic", and "Index" models are crafted/run by Potomac Wealth Strategies.  They show history of better returns, lower volatility, or both--or, with the Index models, closer tracking--vs benchmarks and competitors.









NOTE 3:  "XX Schwab index" models are low-cost portfolios.  They are comprised of index funds available free of transaction charges to my clients at Schwab.  This is what many might recommend due to low-costs and portfolio efficiency.









NOTE 4:  Nothing on this blog post represents investment advice to any individual or organization.  If the information hereon is of interest to you, please contact me at Garo.Partoyan@PotomacWealthStrategies.com for a consultation.

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Election Digestion--Insights from Investment Managers

Here are links to post-election insights from some respected investment managers.

--Gary

Confluence Investment Management 2016-11-09

American Funds/Capital Group 2016-11-09

Janus Capital Group 2016-11-09

State Street Global Advisors 2016-11-09

Fidelity Institutional Asset Management 2016-11-09

Hartford Funds 2016-11-10

Principal Funds 2016-11-10

Confluence Investment Management's Geopolitical Report 2016-11-14

MarketWatch on Trump Affect on Stocks and Bonds 2016-11-14


Election 2016: Prediction and Perspective



Dear Clients--

The presidential election is tomorrow and I want to share my perspective and make a few big-picture predictions.

First and foremost, I recommend you remain invested if you are already in risk-appropriate, long-term portfolios.  For most clients, I am offering and/or using the following:

Investor Style*                       Portfolio Model**                   Strategic Asset Allocation   
Conservative                     20 Strategic III or 20 Schwab Index       20% stocks, 80% bonds
Moderately Conservative 40 Strategic III or 40 Schwab Index        40/60
Moderate                          60 Strategic III or 60 Schwab Index        60/40
Moderately Aggressive    80 Strategic III or 80 Schwab Index        80/20
Aggressive                        95 Strategic III or 95 Schwab Index        95/5

*     If you are not sure of your Investor Style, let's talk soon.
**   Strategic models are generally for tax-deferred accounts.  Schwab Index models are generally for taxable accounts.  There are several versions of the "Strategic" models, with "Strategic III" delivering my latest asset allocation and mutual fund advice. 

Perspective

·        In my 15 years as a financial advisor, I have guided clients through the end of a bear market (tech bubble, Enron, 9/11), a modest/slow recovery during a time of global conflict (war on terror), a terrible market crash (housing bubble/financial crisis), and (presently) a vigorous stock market recovery despite relatively weak economic growth.  My clients' best results have almost always been for those who remained invested and rode out the storms.

·        The "Index Chart" shows numerous global events and stock/bond market performance on a nearly century-long time line.  I believe it illustrates there is often something to rattle markets and that it is best to remain invested for the long-term.  https://static.vgcontent.info/crp/intl/auw/docs/resources/index_chart.pdf

·        This chart shows how difficult it is to time the market well enough to avoid harming long-term returns:  http://www.businessinsider.com/cost-of-missing-10-best-days-in-sp-500-2015-3

·        This article discusses some history of stock market reaction to presidential elections:  http://www.wsj.com/articles/postelection-blues-stocks-rise-before-elections-then-often-slow-1478488500?emailToken=JRr8fvl5Z3Seh9Y9acwk00Y0Y60FAPOIQVWSJnTXN1OJr2DSquG6gr80nNbyq26hQlx3ot0A4mUjRDrXmy92XMKX3rlxjVqiPmJZqY6BiFHUahiLzBPSJQ%3D%3Dhttp://www.wsj.com/articles/postelection-blues-stocks-rise-before-elections-then-often-slow-1478488500?emailToken=JRr8fvl5Z3Seh9Y9acwk00Y0Y60FAPOIQVWSJnTXN1OJr2DSquG6gr80nNbyq26hQlx3ot0A4mUjRDrXmy92XMKX3rlxjVqiPmJZqY6BiFHUahiLzBPSJQ%3D%3D

·        I am keeping my own retirement money invested as-is.

Predictions

·        Clinton likely to win, markets not likely to go down if she wins, could go up sharply.
o   We've had a pull-back recently and the markets seem to expect a Clinton win and don't like surprises.

·        Trump win probably means a short-term market sell-off and recovery within a few months, but probably not a bear market or a crash.
o   "Brexit" vote earlier this year is considered a predictor because of similar, and perhaps underestimated, anti-establishment and isolationist mindsets among voters in UK and USA.

Thank you, and please contact me with any questions or concerns.

--Gary

Garo Linck Partoyan
Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC
(703) 746-8195 phone
(855) 347-9483 fax