Monday, October 3, 2011

Flex Portfolio Performance Through September 2011

It was a very difficult quarter, and an especially rough September, for stock markets.  European "sovereign debt" worries (countries potentially going bankrupt) and renewed concerns about the possibility of the USA entering another recession both hurt developed markets, and slowing growth in China put pressure on emerging markets' stock, commodity and currency markets.

How did my clients fare?  Well, that's obviously a personal and private matter for each client, but this blog entry shows performance data for the three most commonly-used portfolios in my practice.

For September 2011:
S&P 500:    -7.0%
80 Fidelity:  -7.0%*
80 Flex III:  -9.1%
60 Flex III:  -8.0%
40 Flex III:  -6.9%

For 2011-q3 (7/1 through 9/30):
S&P 500:    -13.8%
80 Fidelity:  -13.6%
80 Flex III:  -9.4%
60 Flex III:  -8.1%
40 Flex III:  -6.8% 

For 2011 YTD (1/1 through 9/30):
S&P 500:    -8.7%
80 Fidelity:  -9.2%
80 Flex III:  -5.5%
60 Flex III:  -4.3%
40 Flex III:  -3.2% 

For the 10-yr period ending 9/30/11**:
SP 500:       2.7% per year
80 Fidelity:  4.7% per year
80 Flex II:  11.0% per year
60 Flex II:  10.4% per year
40 Flex II:   9.8% per year

*   80 Fidelity is a portfolio of very popular and widely-available index funds from Fidelity Investments allocated in a 80% stocks, 20% bonds strategy similar to that of the 80 Flex portfolios, and I want to compare the two; the 80 Fidelity portfolio uses a style-pure, buy-hold-rebalance method, while the 80 Flex portfolio allows for a great deal of tactical adjustments within the 80% stock long-term strategy.

** Not all Flex III funds were available for the full 10-year period, but all Flex II funds were.

The Stock-Bond-Alternatives-Cash allocation percentages are approximately:

80 Flex III:  47-9-17-27
60 Flex III:  35-17-14-34
40 Flex III:  24-25-10-41

I still believe staying the course with a global/flexible portfolio is, for most investors, probably a lot better than trying to time the market.  Please contact me with your questions or thoughts.  Thank you!

--Gary

(FYI, my own retirement portfolio remains mostly in 80 Flex III.)

Garo Linck Partoyan
Financial Advisor
Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC
(703) 746-8195
Garo.Partoyan@PotomacWealthStrategies.com
www.PotomacWealthStrategies.com