Sunday, March 16, 2014

Flex and Strategic Model Performance Through February 2014

Flex portfolios are keeping pace with their benchmarks in the last quarter and have outperformed them over the 10-year period.  Strategic models are beating their benchmarks in the 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year time frames, significantly so in the latter three time frames.

The difference between Flex and Strategic?  Flex has delivered lower volatility while faring well overall against the benchmark.  Strategic has outperformed the benchmarks.  Flex has lagged Strategic, but the trade-off is much lower volatility (down markets not as bad with Flex as with other models and benchmarks).

US and Foreign Indexes 3 mo 1 yr 3 yr 5 yr 10 yr 2008
Stock Markets (50-40-10) 2.3% 19.3% 9.5% 20.1% 7.2% -40.7%
S&P 500 3.5% 25.4% 14.4% 23.0% 7.2% -37.0%
MSCI EAFE 2.8% 19.1% 6.5% 17.4% 6.5% -43.4%
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets -5.0% -6.6% -2.7% 15.3% 9.4% -50.0%
Barclays Agg Bond--US 1.4% 0.2% 3.8% 5.1% 4.6% 5.2%
Barclays Agg Bond--Global 1.9% 1.7% 3.0% 5.6% 4.6% 4.8%
Moderately Aggressive 2.8% 17.8% 9.2% 17.3% 6.7% -32.0%
80 Flex III 2.7% 11.0% 7.4%
80 Flex IV 2.3% 10.9% 8.2% 16.5% 9.5% -17.5%
80 Strategic 2.2% 18.9% 12.8% 24.9% 9.7% -33.7%
Fidelity 80 3.1% 18.3% 9.2% 17.6% 6.8% -32.0%
Russell Growth 2.8% 14.1% 6.6% 17.0% 5.7% -36.1%
Moderate 2.5% 13.2% 7.8% 14.1% 6.3% -23.1%
60 Flex III 2.6% 10.5% 5.6%
60 Flex IV 2.6% 9.0% 7.5% 14.6% 9.5% -13.0%
60 Strategic 2.1% 13.9% 10.6% 21.0% 9.1% -25.2%
Vanguard 60 2.4% 12.7% 8.4% 14.9% 6.5% -23.8%
Russell Balanced 2.5% 10.9% 6.2% 15.2% 5.6% -30.0%
Moderately Conservative 2.1% 8.8% 6.4% 10.9% 5.8% -13.3%
40 Flex IV 2.1% 6.3% 7.1% 13.2% 9.0% -8.0%
Vanguard 40 2.0% 8.1% 7.1% 11.9% 6.0% -15.1%
Russell Moderate 2.1% 6.4% 5.2% 12.7% 5.0% -23.5%
Conservative 1.7% 4.6% 4.8% 7.7% 5.2% -2.5%
20 Flex IV 1.7% 3.6% 6.4% 11.6% 8.1% -2.9%
Vanguard 20 1.7% 3.6% 6.0% 9.1% 5.5% -5.6%
Russell Conservative 1.7% 3.5% 4.2% 9.9% 4.3% -15.5%
Asset Allocation USA x-USA Bond Cash Other
80 Flex IV 31% 20% 18% 22% 8%
60 Flex IV 23% 20% 29% 21% 8%
40 Flex IV 15% 12% 45% 22% 6%
20 Flex IV 7% 6% 30% 24% 3%
NOTE 1:  Past performance is no guarantee of specific future results.  This data is presented by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  This data is from Morningstar and should be accurate, but it has not been independently verified.
NOTE 2:  "Flex" and "Strategic" portfolios are designed and managed by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  These models show track records of better returns, lower volatility, or both, compared to their benchmarks and popular competitors.
NOTE 3:  "Vanguard 80" and "Fidelity 80" are low-cost Moderately Aggressive portfolios.  They are comprised of index funds from Vanguard or Fidelity.  This is what many might recommend due to low-costs and portfolio efficiency.
NOTE 4:  Russell portfolios are offered by one of the most highly-regarded institutional money managers in the country.  These portfolios handle money for dozens of high net-worth people and famous organizations.
NOTE 5:  Nothing on this blog post represents investment advice to any individual or organization.  If the information hereon is of interest to you, please contact us at Garo.Partoyan@PotomacWealthStrategies.com for a consultation.
Flex Portfolio Mutual Funds 3 mo 1 yr 3 yr 5 yr 10 yr 2008
First Eagle Global Fund 3.5% 14.7% 8.6% 16.8% 10.1% -21.1%
First Eagle Overseas Fund 3.4% 12.4% 6.6% 14.9% 9.7% -21.0%
Yacktman Focused Fund 0.3% 16.0% 12.3% 26.9% 10.1% -23.5%
Ivy Asset Strategy Fund 5.3% 21.9% 10.8% 13.8% 12.4% -25.9%
Arrow DWA Tactical Fund 4.2% 23.7% 6.7%
Permanent Portfolio Fund 4.1% 1.9% 2.6% 11.1% 8.2% -8.4%
PIMCO Total Return Fund 0.8% -0.6% 4.1% 7.1% 5.7% 4.5%
PIMCO Income Fund 2.8% 4.8% 10.4% 15.5% -5.8%
PIMCO All Asset Fund 1.3% 0.8% 5.3% 12.5% 5.9% -15.9%
Templeton Global Bond Fund 0.3% 0.2% 4.4% 10.2% 8.5% 6.3%