Market Volatility--Gary's Thoughts in August 2019

This market volatility is unsettling.  I think it is mostly due to economic slowdown in some key foreign countries like Germany, and to the trade dispute between China and USA.  But I’m still positive because earnings growth is good in corporate America, US consumer spending is strong, unemployment is low, and US-based stocks are not “overvalued” to a concerning degree.

I also think China does not want to actually hurt itself even if it may want to try to hurt the US.  China selling too many US bonds too quickly would hurt the US, but it would also cause the Chinese portfolio of US bonds to drop in value

Further, I believe the president focuses on tangible and recognizable measures, like unemployment rate and stock market performance, and thus will want to ultimately do things that keep those #s looking strong.  My hope is after some blustering by China and the USA, they will each pull back from the verbal brinksmanship.

For most of us...  generally, long-term investors with moderate to aggressive risk tolerance should pretty much ignore the stock market volatility and stay invested in the suitable diversified strategy, even as markets go up and down

I’m happy to talk more if you wish.  I’m also sharing some links to articles that I find informative.  My firm’s social media presence includes Facebook (Potomac Wealth Strategies, Twitter (@GLPartoyan), and LinkedIn (Garo Partoyan), in case you want to follow me that way.

Thank you, and happy Friday!

--Gary Partoyan

Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC

Portfolio Model Performance Through 2019-06-30

US and Foreign Indexes		3 mo	1 yr	2 yr	3 yr	5 yr	10 yr	2008
Stock Markets (72-21-7)		3.2%	5.4%	7.7%	6.0%	10.0%	5.8%	-41.0%
S&P 500 PR		3.8%	8.2%	10.2%	11.9%	8.5%	12.3%	-38.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Avg PR		2.6%	9.6%	11.6%	14.1%	9.6%	12.2%	-33.8%
MSCI EAFE		2.5%	-1.9%	1.0%	6.1%	-0.5%	3.9%	-45.1%
MSCI EM		-0.3%	-1.4%	2.2%	8.1%	0.1%	3.3%	-54.5%
Barclays Agg Bond--US		3.1%	7.9%	3.7%	2.3%	3.0%	3.9%	5.2%
Citi WGBI nonUSD (foreign bonds)		3.9%	4.5%	3.9%	0.8%	0.2%	1.9%	10.1%
Aggressive (95% stocks-5% bonds)		2.6%	2.6%	6.4%	9.6%	5.3%	9.7%	-38.9%
95 Strategic V		3.4%	5.8%	9.7%	13.3%	8.1%	12.7%	-36.1%
95 Schwab index 2019		3.9%	7.0%	9.5%	12.2%	7.9%	12.3%	-36.2%
95 Strategic USA II		5.2%	12.2%	12.3%	13.4%	9.5%	14.2%	26.3%
WealthFront 9		3.0%	5.5%	7.6%	10.3%	5.4%	9.5%	-38.1%
Franklin Mutual Beacon A		2.4%	6.3%	4.6%	9.7%	5.6%	10.6%	-40.5%
American Funds Port Ser Growth		3.2%	4.3%	10.2%	13.1%	8.7%	12.7%	-39.5%
American Funds Growth+Global		3.5%	4.2%	9.7%	13.1%	7.7%
Confluence Aggressive Growth		2.9%	1.3%		8.9%	6.4%	10.5%
Confluence Value Opportunities		9.3%	-0.9%		7.2%	8.2%	14.4%	-22.3%
Confluence Equity Income		5.9%	10.0%		10.3%	9.6%	14.3%	-18.9%
Confluence Small Cap Value		4.1%	0.6%		13.0%	10.5%	14.1%	-21.8%
Confluence Large Cap Value		7.6%	16.8%		13.0%	9.9%	14.9%	-27.0%
Confluence IDEA		5.3%	12.9%		14.0%	11.2%
Moderately Aggressive (75-25)		2.5%	3.5%	5.6%	7.1%	3.9%	8.0%	-31.0%
80 Strategic V		3.5%	6.8%	9.4%	12.6%	7.7%	12.1%	-34.2%
80 Strategic III		4.0%	8.5%	9.2%	10.1%	7.2%	11.6%	-28.6%
80 Schwab index 2019		3.7%	7.0%	8.6%	10.5%	7.1%	11.0%	-30.9%
Confluence Growth		3.3%	3.8%		9.0%	7.3%	10.8%
Money 75		2.7%	4.4%	7.9%	10.2%	6.6%	11.1%	-31.5%
T Rowe Price Personal Strategy Growth		3.6%	6.4%	8.8%	11.8%	7.3%	11.8%	-37.6%
American Funds Port Ser Gr+Inc		2.7%	5.0%	7.6%	9.6%	6.8%	10.5%	-32.7%
Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Inv		3.5%	6.0%	8.1%	10.8%	6.7%	11.2%	-34.5%
Moderate (60-40)		2.4%	4.0%	5.2%	6.1%	3.6%	7.2%	-25.6%
60 Strategic V		3.2%	6.5%	8.3%	10.8%	6.7%	10.6%	-29.1%
60 Strategic III		3.8%	8.0%	8.1%	8.7%	6.3%	10.4%	-24.8%
Janus Henderson Balanced T		3.9%	10.0%	11.3%	12.1%	7.8%	10.0%	-15.2%
American Funds Port Ser Moderate Gr+Inc		3.0%	6.4%	7.2%	8.4%	5.9%
American Funds American Balanced F-1		2.8%	6.9%	8.0%	8.8%	7.3%	11.0%	-25.7%
Moderately Conservative (40-60)		2.6%	4.7%	4.7%	5.1%	3.1%	5.7%	-17.4%
40 Strategic V		3.0%	6.3%	6.3%	7.8%	4.9%	8.4%	-22.0%
40 Schwab index 2019		3.1%	6.8%	6.6%	7.0%	5.5%	8./29%	-20.1%
Confluence Income & Growth		3.8%	10.2%		6.5%	6.3%	9.2%
T Rowe Price Personal Strategy Income		3.0%	6.5%	6.2%	7.4%	5.1%	8.1%	-20.4%
Conservative (20-80)		2.4%	5.0%	4.0%	3.6%	2.3%	4.1%	-8.4%
20 Strategic V		2.8%	6.3%	5.3%	6.0%	3.9%	6.9%	-15.4%
20 Schwab index 2019		2.6%	6.4%	5.0%	4.6%	4.2%	6.2%	-9.8%
Fidelity Advisor Asset Mgr 20%		2.1%	4.6%	3.7%	3.9%	3.0%	5.0%	-14.4%
NOTE 1:  Past performance is no guarantee of specific future results.  This data is presented by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  This data is from Morningstar and should be accurate, but it has not been independently verified.
NOTE 2:  "Flex", "Strategic", and "Index" models are crafted/run by Potomac Wealth Strategies.  They show history of better returns, lower volatility, or both--or, with the Index models, closer tracking--vs benchmarks and competitors.
NOTE 3:  "XX Schwab index" and "XX Schwab ETF" models are relatively low-cost and tax-efficient portfolios.  They are comprised mostly of index funds or exchange-trade funds available free of transaction charges to my clients at Schwab.  This is what many might recommend due to low-costs and portfolio efficiency.
NOTE 4:  Nothing on this blog post is specific investment advice to any individual or organization.  If the information hereon is of interest to you, please send e-mail to Info@PotomacWealthStrategies.com for a consultation.