Flex and Strategic Model Performance Through February 2014

Flex portfolios are keeping pace with their benchmarks in the last quarter and have outperformed them over the 10-year period.  Strategic models are beating their benchmarks in the 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year time frames, significantly so in the latter three time frames.

The difference between Flex and Strategic?  Flex has delivered lower volatility while faring well overall against the benchmark.  Strategic has outperformed the benchmarks.  Flex has lagged Strategic, but the trade-off is much lower volatility (down markets not as bad with Flex as with other models and benchmarks).

US and Foreign Indexes		3 mo	1 yr	3 yr	5 yr	10 yr	2008
Stock Markets (50-40-10)		2.3%	19.3%	9.5%	20.1%	7.2%	-40.7%
S&P 500		3.5%	25.4%	14.4%	23.0%	7.2%	-37.0%
MSCI EAFE		2.8%	19.1%	6.5%	17.4%	6.5%	-43.4%
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets		-5.0%	-6.6%	-2.7%	15.3%	9.4%	-50.0%
Barclays Agg Bond--US		1.4%	0.2%	3.8%	5.1%	4.6%	5.2%
Barclays Agg Bond--Global		1.9%	1.7%	3.0%	5.6%	4.6%	4.8%
Moderately Aggressive		2.8%	17.8%	9.2%	17.3%	6.7%	-32.0%
80 Flex III		2.7%	11.0%	7.4%
80 Flex IV		2.3%	10.9%	8.2%	16.5%	9.5%	-17.5%
80 Strategic		2.2%	18.9%	12.8%	24.9%	9.7%	-33.7%
Fidelity 80		3.1%	18.3%	9.2%	17.6%	6.8%	-32.0%
Russell Growth		2.8%	14.1%	6.6%	17.0%	5.7%	-36.1%
Moderate		2.5%	13.2%	7.8%	14.1%	6.3%	-23.1%
60 Flex III		2.6%	10.5%	5.6%
60 Flex IV		2.6%	9.0%	7.5%	14.6%	9.5%	-13.0%
60 Strategic		2.1%	13.9%	10.6%	21.0%	9.1%	-25.2%
Vanguard 60		2.4%	12.7%	8.4%	14.9%	6.5%	-23.8%
Russell Balanced		2.5%	10.9%	6.2%	15.2%	5.6%	-30.0%
Moderately Conservative		2.1%	8.8%	6.4%	10.9%	5.8%	-13.3%
40 Flex IV		2.1%	6.3%	7.1%	13.2%	9.0%	-8.0%
Vanguard 40		2.0%	8.1%	7.1%	11.9%	6.0%	-15.1%
Russell Moderate		2.1%	6.4%	5.2%	12.7%	5.0%	-23.5%
Conservative		1.7%	4.6%	4.8%	7.7%	5.2%	-2.5%
20 Flex IV		1.7%	3.6%	6.4%	11.6%	8.1%	-2.9%
Vanguard 20		1.7%	3.6%	6.0%	9.1%	5.5%	-5.6%
Russell Conservative		1.7%	3.5%	4.2%	9.9%	4.3%	-15.5%
Asset Allocation		USA	x-USA	Bond	Cash	Other
80 Flex IV		31%	20%	18%	22%	8%
60 Flex IV		23%	20%	29%	21%	8%
40 Flex IV		15%	12%	45%	22%	6%
20 Flex IV		7%	6%	30%	24%	3%
NOTE 1:  Past performance is no guarantee of specific future results.  This data is presented by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  This data is from Morningstar and should be accurate, but it has not been independently verified.
NOTE 2:  "Flex" and "Strategic" portfolios are designed and managed by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  These models show track records of better returns, lower volatility, or both, compared to their benchmarks and popular competitors.
NOTE 3:  "Vanguard 80" and "Fidelity 80" are low-cost Moderately Aggressive portfolios.  They are comprised of index funds from Vanguard or Fidelity.  This is what many might recommend due to low-costs and portfolio efficiency.
NOTE 4:  Russell portfolios are offered by one of the most highly-regarded institutional money managers in the country.  These portfolios handle money for dozens of high net-worth people and famous organizations.
NOTE 5:  Nothing on this blog post represents investment advice to any individual or organization.  If the information hereon is of interest to you, please contact us at Garo.Partoyan@PotomacWealthStrategies.com for a consultation.
Flex Portfolio Mutual Funds		3 mo	1 yr	3 yr	5 yr	10 yr	2008
First Eagle Global Fund		3.5%	14.7%	8.6%	16.8%	10.1%	-21.1%
First Eagle Overseas Fund		3.4%	12.4%	6.6%	14.9%	9.7%	-21.0%
Yacktman Focused Fund		0.3%	16.0%	12.3%	26.9%	10.1%	-23.5%
Ivy Asset Strategy Fund		5.3%	21.9%	10.8%	13.8%	12.4%	-25.9%
Arrow DWA Tactical Fund		4.2%	23.7%	6.7%
Permanent Portfolio Fund		4.1%	1.9%	2.6%	11.1%	8.2%	-8.4%
PIMCO Total Return Fund		0.8%	-0.6%	4.1%	7.1%	5.7%	4.5%
PIMCO Income Fund		2.8%	4.8%	10.4%	15.5%		-5.8%
PIMCO All Asset Fund		1.3%	0.8%	5.3%	12.5%	5.9%	-15.9%
Templeton Global Bond Fund		0.3%	0.2%	4.4%	10.2%	8.5%	6.3%

Flex and Strategic Model Performance Through January 2014

US and Foreign Indexes		3 mo	1 yr	3 yr	5 yr	10 yr	2008
Stock Markets (50-40-10)		-0.8%	14.0%	8.8%	16.5%	6.9%	-40.7%
S&P 500		2.0%	21.5%	13.9%	19.2%	6.8%	-37.0%
MSCI EAFE		-1.9%	11.8%	5.8%	13.7%	6.2%	-43.4%
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets		-9.3%	-10.7%	-3.8%	13.2%	9.4%	-50.0%
Barclays Agg Bond--US		0.5%	0.1%	3.7%	4.9%	4.6%	5.2%
Barclays Agg Bond--Global		-0.4%	-0.7%	2.7%	4.8%	4.5%	4.8%
Moderately Aggressive		0.1%	13.1%	8.7%	14.2%	6.5%	-32.0%
80 Flex III		0.3%	7.5%	7.4%
80 Flex IV		0.0%	7.9%	8.1%	14.8%	9.4%	-17.5%
80 Strategic		-0.2%	15.9%	12.6%	21.6%	9.6%	-33.7%
Fidelity 80		0.1%	13.4%	8.7%	14.6%	6.5%	-32.0%
Russell Growth		-0.1%	9.4%	6.1%	14.0%	5.4%	-36.1%
Moderate		0.0%	9.6%	7.4%	11.8%	6.1%	-23.1%
60 Flex III		0.1%	5.3%	6.8%
60 Flex IV		0.2%	6.1%	7.3%	13.1%	9.5%	-13.0%
60 Strategic		-0.2%	11.4%	10.5%	18.3%	9.0%	-25.2%
Vanguard 60		0.1%	9.5%	7.9%	12.6%	6.3%	-23.8%
Russell Balanced		0.0%	7.3%	5.8%	12.7%	5.4%	-30.0%
Moderately Conservative		0.0%	6.1%	6.0%	9.2%	5.7%	-13.3%
40 Flex IV		0.2%	4.3%	7.0%	11.9%	9.0%	-8.0%
Vanguard 40		0.3%	6.2%	6.7%	10.3%	5.9%	-15.1%
Russell Moderate		0.0%	4.1%	4.8%	10.9%	4.8%	-23.5%
Conservative		-0.1%	2.7%	4.6%	6.6%	5.1%	-2.5%
20 Flex IV		0.1%	2.4%	6.4%	10.4%	8.1%	-2.9%
Vanguard 20		0.4%	2.9%	5.7%	8.2%	5.5%	-5.6%
Russell Conservative		0.2%	2.0%	3.9%	8.7%	4.2%	-15.5%
Asset Allocation		USA	x-USA	Bond	Cash	Other
80 Flex IV		31%	20%	18%	24%	7%
60 Flex IV		23%	19%	29%	22%	7%
40 Flex IV		15%	12%	45%	22%	5%
20 Flex IV		7%	6%	60%	24%	4%
NOTE 1:  Past performance is no guarantee of specific future results.  This data is presented by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  This data is from Morningstar and should be accurate, but it has not been independently verified.
NOTE 2:  "Flex" and "Strategic" portfolios are designed and managed by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  These models show track records of better returns, lower volatility, or both, compared to their benchmarks and popular competitors.
NOTE 3:  "Vanguard 80" and "Fidelity 80" are low-cost Moderately Aggressive portfolios.  They are comprised of index funds from Vanguard or Fidelity.  This is what many might recommend due to low-costs and portfolio efficiency.
NOTE 4:  Russell portfolios are offered by one of the most highly-regarded institutional money managers in the country.  These portfolios handle money for dozens of high net-worth people and famous organizations.
NOTE 5:  Nothing on this blog post represents investment advice to any individual or organization.  If the information hereon is of interest to you, please contact us at Garo.Partoyan@PotomacWealthStrategies.com for a consultation.

January Financial Checklist:

1)  401(k)/403(b)/TSP contributions limits are $17,500 for most, higher for some.  Make sure your automatic contributions are updated if necessary.

2)  IRA contribution limits--$5500 for most, $6500 for some; talk to your tax person to be sure.  Don't forget to complete your 2013 contributions first--folks with automatic deposits need to watch this carefully.

3)  Get your tax forms together a month before you meet with your tax preparer.  Folks who wait will probably leave money on the table by not maximizing refund or minimizing payment owed.

4)  If you die or become disabled, what income will be there going forward?  Life insurance and Disability insurance are not pains in the neck or expensive "upsell" products; they are your first line of defense.  Get on this, or double-check what you have in place.  (Note:  Although I do not sell insurance, I still want clients to have--or buy--what they need to protect themselves.)

Flex and Strategic Model Performance Through December 2013

US and Foreign Indexes		3 mo	1 yr	3 yr	5 yr	10 yr	2008
Stock Markets (50-40-10)		7.6%	24.5%	11.0%	15.2%	7.6%	-40.7%
S&P 500		10.5%	32.4%	16.2%	17.9%	7.4%	-37.0%
MSCI EAFE		5.7%	22.8%	8.2%	12.4%	6.9%	-43.4%
Barclays Agg Bond--US		-0.1%	-2.0%	3.3%	4.4%	4.6%	5.2%
Barclays Agg Bond--Global		-0.4%	-2.6%	2.4%	3.9%	4.5%	4.8%
Moderately Aggressive		6.3%	21.0%	10.4%	13.0%	6.9%	-32.0%
80 Flex III		4.6%	12.6%	7.9%
80 Flex IV		4.5%	13.7%	8.8%	14.0%	9.7%	-17.5%
80 Strategic		6.3%	25.2%	14.0%	20.2%	10.1%	-33.7%
Fidelity 80		6.2%	21.2%	10.4%	13.2%	7.0%	-32.0%
Russell Growth		5.6%	16.2%	7.6%	12.8%	5.9%	-36.1%
Moderate		4.6%	14.7%	8.6%	11.5%	6.4%	-23.1%
60 Flex III		3.5%	8,84%	7.2%
60 Flex IV		3.7%	10.3%	7.8%	12.6%	9.6%	-13.0%
60 Strategic		4.9%	17.9%	11.5%	17.3%	9.4%	-25.2%
Vanguard 60		4.5%	14.1%	9.1%	11.4%	6.6%	-23.8%
Russell Balanced		4.4%	12.0%	6.9%	11.9%	5.8%	-30.0%
Moderately Conservative		2.8%	8.6%	6.6%	8.2%	5.8%	-13.3%
40 Flex IV		2.9%	7.2%	7.3%	11.6%	9.1%	-8.0%
Vanguard 40		2.9%	8.2%	7.3%	9.3%	6.1%	-15.1%
Russell Moderate		2.6%	6.3%	5.4%	10.2%	5.0%	-23.5%
Conservative		1.1%	2.9%	4.7%	5.6%	5.2%	-2.5%
20 Flex IV		2.0%	4.0%	6.6%	10.3%	8.2%	-2.9%
Vanguard 20		1.2%	2.4%	5.7%	7.4%	5.6%	-5.6%
Russell Conservative		1.6%	2.7%	4.2%	8.4%	4.3%	-15.5%
Asset Allocation		USA	x-USA	Bond	Cash	Other
80 Flex IV		31%	20%	17%	24%	8%
60 Flex IV		22%	19%	28%	23%	8%
40 Flex IV		15%	12%	44%	24%	6%
20 Flex IV		7%	6%	58%	27%	3%
NOTE 1:  Past performance is no guarantee of specific future results.  This data is presented by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  This data is from Morningstar and should be accurate, but it has not been independently verified.
NOTE 2:  "Flex" and "Strategic" portfolios are designed and managed by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  These models show track records of better returns, lower volatility, or both, compared to their benchmarks and popular competitors.
NOTE 3:  "Vanguard 80" and "Fidelity 80" are low-cost Moderately Aggressive portfolios.  They are comprised of index funds from Vanguard or Fidelity.  This is what many might recommend due to low-costs and portfolio efficiency.
NOTE 4:  Russell portfolios are offered by one of the most highly-regarded institutional money managers in the country.  These portfolios handle money for dozens of high net-worth people and famous organizations.
NOTE 5:  Nothing on this blog post represents investment advice to any individual or organization.  If the information hereon is of interest to you, please contact us at Garo.Partoyan@PotomacWealthStrategies.com for a consultation.

Flex and Strategic Portfolio Performance Through November 2013

Here is how the most widely-used Flex and Strategic portfolio models have fared:

US and Foreign Indexes		3 mo	1 yr	3 yr	5 yr	10 yr	2008
Stock Markets (50-40-10)		11.3%	25.2%	13.0%	15.7%	8.1%	-40.7%
S&P 500		11.2%	30.3%	17.7%	17.6%	7.7%	-37.0%
MSCI EAFE		11.8%	24.7%	10.4%	13.3%	7.4%	-43.1%
Barclays Agg Bond--US		1.4%	-1.6%	3.1%	5.3%	4.7%	5.2%
Barclays Agg Bond--Global		2.2%	-2.3%	3.0%	5.3%	4.9%	4.8%
Moderately Aggressive		9.5%	21.1%	12.0%	13.5%	7.3%	-32.0%
80 Flex III		6.1%	13.0%	8.6%
80 Flex IV		5.7%	14.1%	9.7%	14.9%	10.0%	-14.8%
80 Strategic		9.0%	25.9%	15.5%	21.1%	10.5%	-33.7%
Fidelity 80		9.3%	21.7%	11.8%	13.8%	7.4%	-32.0%
Russell Growth		8.0%	16.7%	9.1%	13.5%	6.1%	-36.1%
Moderate		7.5%	14.9%	9.8%	11.3%	6.8%	-23.1%
60 Flex III		5.0%	9.5%	7.8%
60 Flex IV		4.9%	10.8%	8.6%	13.4%	10.0%	-13.0%
60 Strategic		7.4%	18.5%	12.7%	18.0%	9.8%	-24.9%
Vanguard 60		7.6%	14.7%	10.1%	12.3%	7.0%	-23.8%
Russell Balanced		6.8%	12.6%	8.0%	12.6%	6.0%	-30.0%
Moderately Conservative		5.5%	8.9%	7.5%	9.0%	6.2%	-13.3%
40 Flex IV		4.3%	7.9%	7.9%	12.4%	9.4%	-8.0%
Vanguard 40		5.7%	8.9%	7.9%	10.2%	6.4%	-15.1%
Russell Moderate		4.7%	7.0%	6.2%	11.0%	5.2%	-23.5%
Conservative		3.5%	3.2%	5.2%	6.6%	5.5%	-2.5%
20 Flex IV		3.6%	4.8%	6.9%	11.2%	8.5%	-2.9%
Vanguard 20		3.8%	3.1%	5.8%	8.5%	5.8%	-5.6%
Russell Conservative		3.0%	3.1%	4.6%	9.1%	4.5%	-15.5%
Asset Allocation		USA	x-USA	Bond	Cash	Other
80 Flex IV		31%	20%	18%	23%	9%
60 Flex IV		22%	20%	29%	21%	9%
40 Flex IV		15%	12%	45%	21%	7%
20 Flex IV		7%	6%	60%	23%	5%
NOTE 1:  Past performance is no guarantee of specific future results.  This data is presented by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  This data is from Morningstar and should be accurate, but it has not been independently verified.
NOTE 2:  "Flex" and "Strategic" portfolios are designed and managed by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  These models show track records of better returns, lower volatility, or both, compared to their benchmarks and popular competitors.
NOTE 3:  "Vanguard 80" and "Fidelity 80" are low-cost Moderately Aggressive portfolios.  They are comprised of index funds from Vanguard or Fidelity.  This is what many might recommend due to low-costs and portfolio efficiency.
NOTE 4:  Russell portfolios are offered by one of the most highly-regarded institutional money managers in the country.  These portfolios handle money for dozens of high net-worth people and famous organizations.
NOTE 5:  Nothing on this blog post represents investment advice to any individual or organization.  If the information hereon is of interest to you, please contact us at Garo.Partoyan@PotomacWealthStrategies.com for a consultation.