Sunday, October 10, 2010

New Normal, No Normal, or Old Cyclical?

What sort of economy is the USA and the rest of the developed-economy world facing now and for the next number of years?

Bill Gross and Jeffrey Gundlach, two of the best bond fund managers on the planet, are the proponents of "new normal" and "no normal" theories, respectively, of the near- and intermediate-term economic outlook for the USA.

New Normal, by Gross and his team, is about persistent low-growth economics coupled with high unemployment over the next half-decade or so. Not another collapse, but hardly much of a recovery situation. Here in the developed world, that is. Opportunities abound eleswhere.

No Normal, espoused by Gundlach, is more about there being so much uncertainty that we can't be sure what will happen. Inflation or deflation? Recovery or double-dip, and with old jobs returning or there being a need for brand-new jobs?

Former economic advisor to president Obama, Christina Romer, thinks we are in the "old cyclical", not a new/no normal environment. She seems to think this is similar to what's happened in the past. Maybe so, but I think Gundlach and Gross have a better feel for what is actually going on in the real economy.

Politicians and ivory tower-dwellers are not to be ignored, but when there is a difference of opinion this significant, the investment experts with awesome track records, like Gross and Gundlach, probably are more worthy of our attention.

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