Flex and Strategic Portfolio Performance Through September 2013

US and Foreign Indexes		3 mo	1 yr	3 yr	5 yr	10 yr	2008
Stock Markets (50-40-10)		7.8%	19.1%	11.3%	8.2%	8.3%	-40.7%
S&P 500		5.2%	19.3%	16.3%	10.0%	7.6%	-37.0%
MSCI EAFE		11.5%	23.7%	8.4%	6.3%	7.9%	-43.1%
Barclays Agg Bond--US		0.6%	-1.7%	2.9%	5.4%	4.6%	5.2%
Barclays Agg Bond--Global		2.8%	-2.6%	2.1%	5.1%	4.9%	4.8%
Moderately Aggressive		7.0%	16.5%	10.5%	7.9%	7.5%	-32.0%
80 Flex III		4.5%	9.8%	8.2%
80 Flex IV		4.4%	8.1%	8.1%	10.0%	9.7%	-14.8%
80 Strategic		7.7%	26.0%	15.4%	15.5%	11.6%	-31.7%
Fidelity 80		7.1%	17.6%	10.7%	7.9%	7.5%	-32.0%
Russell Growth		5.7%	12.7%	8.3%	6.6%	6.4%	-36.1%
Moderate		5.6%	11.6%	8.5%	7.3%	6.9%	-23.1%
60 Flex III		3.7%	7.4%	7.5%	9.5%
60 Flex IV		4.3%	8.7%	8.3%	10.3%	10.1%	-13.0%
60 Strategic		5.2%	17.1%	12.0%	13.9%	10.6%	-23.0%
Vanguard 60		5.3%	11.7%	8.9%	8.0%	7.0%	-23.8%
Russell Balanced		4.5%	9.5%	7.3%	7.0%	6.1%	-30.0%
Moderately Conservative		4.2%	6.8%	6.4%	6.5%	6.3%	-13.3%
40 Flex IV		3.2%	6.7%	7.6%	10.2%	9.5%	-8.0%
Vanguard 40		3.7%	6.9%	7.0%	7.5%	6.3%	-15.1%
Russell Moderate		3.0%	5.2%	5.7%	6.9%	5.3%	-23.5%
Conservative		2.8%	2.1%	4.3%	5.6%	5.5%	-2.5%
20 Flex IV		2.1%	4.6%	6.6%	9.9%	8.5%	-2.9%
Vanguard 20		2.2%	2.3%	5.2%	7.2%	5.7%	-5.6%
Russell Conservative		1.6%	2.1%	4.2%	6.3%	4.4%	-15.5%
Asset Allocation	Cash	USA	x-USA	Bond	Other
80 Flex IV	23%	26%	20%	22%	10%
60 Flex IV	22%	23%	19%	28%	8%
40 Flex IV	22%	15%	12%	44%	6%
20 Flex IV	24%	7%	5%	59%	5%
NOTE 1:  Past performance is no guarantee of specific future results.  This data is presented by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  This data is from Morningstar and should be accurate, but it has not been independently verified.
NOTE 2:  "Flex" and "Strategic" portfolios are designed and managed by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  These models show track records of better returns, lower volatility, or both, compared to their benchmarks and popular competitors.
NOTE 3:  "Vanguard 80" and "Fidelity 80" are low-cost Moderately Aggressive portfolios.  They are comprised of index funds from Vanguard or Fidelity.  This is what many might recommend due to low-costs and portfolio efficiency.
NOTE 4:  Russell portfolios are offered by one of the most highly-regarded institutional money managers in the country.  These portfolios handle money for dozens of high net-worth people and famous organizations.
NOTE 5:  Nothing on this blog post represents investment advice to any individual or organization.  If the information hereon is of interest to you, please contact us at Garo.Partoyan@PotomacWealthStrategies.com for a consultation.

Subject: debt ceiling deal--Gary's thoughts re our portfolios

Subject: debt ceiling deal--Gary's thoughts re our portfolios (10/16/2013)

Good morning.  I write this to let you know how I am approaching our portfolios regarding the political conflicts in Washington, DC.

Big Picture:

·         Stay the course, invest more on market declines.

·         I predict we will not have a market crash like in 2008.

·         We might have a market correction like in Summer/Fall of 2011.

·         There is always SOMETHING causing anxiety for investors.

·         The best strategies for the long-term have been most effective when we just stay invested and continue to save and invest more.

·         I know, that is easier said than done given the political picture.

Political Update:

·         Word this morning is that the House will vote on the compromise worked out by the Senate.

·         There was talk of the House working its own deal (which I believe would have failed in the Senate), but one of my best contacts said yesterday that was a no-go and the Reid-McConnell negotiation is what will really be voted on soon, and reports today are indicating the same.

·         I expect Speaker Boehner will get enough of the Republicans to vote for it, joining most Democrats to approve it in the House.

·         Barring a filibuster or some procedural maneouver by some protesting Senator, the deal will then pass the Senate also, and the president will sign it.

Results of "deal":

·         debt ceiling lifted for a while (we pay all of our bills--albeit with ever-more borrowed money)

·         government re-opened soon

This does not "fix" "everything", of course.  It just means our credit cards will have not been cancelled and we will have found our checkbook and a pen, and government services and workers get back to speed.  It also means we probably are going to see more negotiations/battles like this in the near future.

What this means:

·         no "default"; our bills will be paid pretty much on-time

·         no "real" default; our bond interest obligations will be paid, and our bond principle will be paid-back upon maturity

o   I think this "default on our debt" issue was overblown and misunderstood, as the government cashflow is more than enough to cover our actual debt obligations

o   Secy of Treasury Lew has discretion to prioritize payments

o   So, Secretary Lew would have to deliberately choose to default on our bond interest/principle if no deal has passed in time, and that is almost impossible to imagine for reasons both economic and political

·         money market funds are likely to NOT "break the buck" (our cash, while never FDIC-guaranteed, is likely to remain quite safe)

·         no progress on long-term fiscal strategy (entitlement reform, tax code, other budgetary items)

·         no guarantee this won't happen again (debt ceiling debacle of August 2011 was followed by Fiscal Cliff anxiety a year ago…)

For our portfolios:

·         Flex and Strategic portfolios should stay invested if Senate deal passes House

·         If no deal passes, we have the option of going to cash/money market funds IF we think we're facing another 2008-size market slide

o   I strongly caution against going to cash, though.  Market reactions tend to be swift and strong during such times, and I don't want people missing out on a rally that comes after a sell-off

·         Uninvested cash will be invested in large chunks or entirely if the market drops more than ~5% in a week or so AFTER there is a political deal

·         Uninvested cash will be averaged-in over the next three months if the market volatility is normal after there is a political deal or series of deals

·         You can override my recommendations, of course--it is your money even after I provide my advice

Please contact me with any questions.  Thank you!

--Gary

Flex and Strategic Portfolio Returns Through August 2013

Here are the performance #s through August for the more popular portfolios I offer:

US and Foreign Indexes		3 mo	1 yr	3 yr	5 yr	10 yr	2008
Stock Markets (50-40-10)		-0.3%	16.7%	12.9%	4.5%	7.8%	-40.7%
S&P 500		0.7%	18.6%	18.3%	7.2%	7.0%	-37.0%
MSCI EAFE		0.1%	18.6%	9.2%	1.6%	7.4%	-43.1%
Barclays Agg Bond--US		-1.9%	-2.5%	2.6%	4.9%	4.8%	5.2%
Barclays Agg Bond--Global		-0.5%	-3.4%	2.2%	4.2%	5.2%	4.8%
Moderately Aggressive		0.2%	14.1%	11.6%	4.8%	7.2%	-32.0%
80 Flex III		-1.0%	6.8%	8.1%			-13.8%
80 Flex IV		-0.5%	7.8%	8.7%	8.3%	9.5%	-14.0%
80 Strategic		0.7%	23.9%	16.6%	12.8%	11.2%	-31.7%
Fidelity 80		-0.4%	14.8%	11.8%	5.0%	7.2%	-32.0%
Russell Growth		-0.7%	11.0%	9.6%	3.8%	6.0%	-36.1%
Moderate		-0.1%	9.6%	9.3%	4.9%	6.7%	-23.1%
60 Flex III		-1.3%	7.1%	8.0%			-12.6%
60 Flex IV		-0.7%	8.3%	8.8%	8.8%	9.9%	-11.5%
60 Strategic		-0.9%	15.8%	12.9%	11.6%	10.4%	-23.0%
Vanguard 60		-0.8%	9.5%	9.7%	5.6%	6.8%	-23.8%
Russell Balanced		-1.2%	8.1%	8.2%	4.6%	5.9%	-30.0%
Moderately Conservative		-0.4%	5.1%	6.7%	4.8%	6.2%	-13.3%
40 Flex IV		-1.6%	6.5%	7.8%	8.8%	9.3%	-7.2%
Vanguard 40		-1.5%	5.2%	7.4%	5.6%	6.3%	-15.1%
Russell Moderate		-1.7%	4.2%	6.2%	5.0%	5.1%	-23.5%
Conservative		-0.8%	0.9%	4.6%	4.5%	5.6%	-2.5%
20 Flex IV		-2.4%	4.8%	6.9%	8.9%	8.7%	-2.9%
Vanguard 20		-2.4%	0.9%	5.2%	5.8%	5.8%	-5.6%
Russell Conservative		-1.8%	1.6%	4.5%	5.1%	4.4%	-15.5%
Asset Allocation	Cash	USA	x-USA	Bond	Other
80 Flex IV	24%	25%	18%	23%	9%
60 Flex IV	24%	21%	16%	30%	8%
40 Flex IV	26%	14%	11%	42%	6%
20 Flex IV	28%	7%	5%	55%	5%
NOTE 1:  Past performance is no guarantee of specific future results.  This data is presented by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  This data is from Morningstar and should be accurate, but it has not been independently verified.
NOTE 2:  "Flex" and "Strategic" portfolios are designed and managed by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  These models show track records of better returns, lower volatility, or both, compared to their benchmarks and popular competitors.
NOTE 3:  "Vanguard 80" and "Fidelity 80" are low-cost Moderately Aggressive portfolios.  They are comprised of index funds from Vanguard or Fidelity.  This is what many might recommend due to low-costs and portfolio efficiency.
NOTE 4:  Russell portfolios are offered by one of the most highly-regarded institutional money managers in the country.  These portfolios handle money for dozens of high net-worth people and famous organizations.
NOTE 5:  Nothing on this blog post represents investment advice to any individual or organization.  If the information hereon is of interest to you, please contact us at Garo.Partoyan@PotomacWealthStrategies.com for a consultation.

Flex and Strategic Portfolio Performance Through July 2013

Bond markets have been suffering, while most of our bond funds have been faring better.  Stock markets have been roaring, and it has been hard for Flex to keep up while Strategic has done very well.  But in the most important time periods--5-yr and 10-yr--both the Flex and Strategic portfolios have significantly outperformed their benchmarks.  Also, Strategic portfolios have outperformed benchmarks in almost every time period, often by a lot, while faring better than their benchmarks in 2008.  Meanwhile, most of the Flex portfolios went down only about half as much as their benchmarks in 2008.

If you have a long-term view and are comfortable with volatility, the Strategic portfolios may be most suitable.  If you are anxious about short- and intermediate-term volatility but want to remain fully invested, I still highly recommend the Flex portfolios.

Here are the numbers through July:

US and Foreign Indexes		3 mo	1 yr	3 yr	5 yr	10 yr	2008
Stock Markets (50-40-10)		1.8%	21.8%	12.2%	4.6%	8.3%	-40.7%
S&P 500		6.1%	24.8%	17.6%	8.2%	7.6%	-37.0%
MSCI EAFE		-0.9%	23.4%	8.5%	1.0%	7.8%	-43.1%
Barclays Agg Bond--US		-3.2%	-1.9%	3.2%	5.2%	4.9%	5.2%
Barclays Agg Bond--Global		-2.9%	-2.1%	2.8%	3.9%	5.2%	4.8%
Moderately Aggressive		1.5%	18.6%	11.3%	5.0%	7.5%	-32.0%
80 Flex III		-1.2%	9.3%	8.4%	7.8%		-13.8%
80 Flex IV		-0.7%	10.5%	11.3%	8.4%	9.9%	-14.0%
80 Strategic		4.2%	29.8%	16.2%	13.8%	11.9%	-31.7%
Fidelity 80		1.9%	19.7%	11.3%	5.2%	7.6%	-32.0%
Russell Growth		1.0%	15.3%	9.3%	4.0%	6.5%	-36.1%
Moderate		0.4%	13.0%	9.3%	5.0%	7.1%	-23.1%
60 Flex III		-1.0%	10.0%	8.5%	5.0%		-12.6%
60 Flex IV		-0.7%	10.8%	9.0%	8.8%	10.3%	-11.5%
60 Strategic		1.0%	20.2%	13.0%	12.4%	10.9%	-23.0%
Vanguard 60		-0.2%	13.4%	9.8%	5.8%	7.2%	-23.8%
Russell Balanced		0.1%	11.8%	8.2%	4.9%	6.3%	-30.0%
Moderately Conservative		-0.7%	7.7%	7.2%	4.9%	6.5%	-13.3%
40 Flex IV		-1.7%	8.8%	8.2%	8.9%	9.6%	-7.2%
Vanguard 40		-1.4%	8.1%	7.8%	5.9%	6.6%	-15.1%
Russell Moderate		-1.6%	6.8%	6.5%	5.2%	5.4%	-23.5%
Conservative		-1.8%	2.5%	5.1%	4.6%	5.8%	-2.5%
20 Flex IV		-2.7%	7.0%	7.5%	9.1%	8.9%	-2.9%
Vanguard 20		-2.9%	3.0%	6.0%	6.1%	6.0%	-5.6%
Russell Conservative		-2.1%	3.3%	4.9%	5.2%	4.5%	-15.5%
Asset Allocation	Cash	Stock	Bond	Other
80 Flex IV	24%	44%	23%	9%
60 Flex IV	24%	38%	31%	8%
40 Flex IV	26%	25%	43%	6%
20 Flex IV	27%	12%	56%	5%
NOTE 1:  Past performance is no guarantee of specific future results.  This data is presented by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  This data is from Morningstar and should be accurate, but it has not been independently verified.
NOTE 2:  "Flex" and "Strategic" portfolios are designed and managed by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  These models show track records of better returns, lower volatility, or both, compared to their benchmarks and popular competitors.
NOTE 3:  "Vanguard 80" and "Fidelity 80" are low-cost Moderately Aggressive portfolios.  They are comprised of index funds from Vanguard or Fidelity.  This is what many might recommend due to low-costs and portfolio efficiency.
NOTE 4:  Russell portfolios are offered by one of the most highly-regarded institutional money managers in the country.  These portfolios handle money for dozens of high net-worth people and famous organizations.
NOTE 5:  Nothing on this blog post represents investment advice to any individual or organization.  If the information hereon is of interest to you, please contact us at Garo.Partoyan@PotomacWealthStrategies.com for a consultation.

Portfolio Returns Comparison--Moderately Aggressive Strategies

Below is how Potomac Wealth Strategies' portfolios (80 Flex III, 80 Flex IV, and 80 Strategic) have performed.  In short, these models show better returns and lower volatility than their competition, even after accounting for our advisory fee.

Other portfolios below provide similar Moderately Aggressive strategies but use low-cost, style-pure index funds from either Fidelity or Vanguard.  Many experts preach this kind of "indexing" because it is cheaper (no advisor to pay, for example) and usually beats "actively managed" mutual funds.  However, Potomac Wealth Strategies disagrees that cheaper must be better.  Just because most actively managed funds don't keep up with their benchmarks does not mean we should give up and settle for ordinary portfolios.  Superior performance, lower volatility, or even both at the same time, can be achieved consistently--if the effort is made to identify and use the best-of-breed mutual funds.

Please look at the data below and see for yourself the advantages offered by Potomac Wealth Strategies' Flex and Strategic portfolio models.  Oh, one more thing...  the returns shown for the Flex and Strategic portfolios have our advisory fee already deducted.  We firmly believe that cost-justification is more important than cost alone.

Thank you for your interest.  Let us know how we can help!

US and Foreign Indexes	3 mo		1 yr		3 yr		5 yr		10 yr		2008
Stock Markets (50-40-10)	0.3%		17.9%		13.4%		3.2%		8.1%		-40.7%
S&P 500	2.9%		20.6%		18.5%		7.0%		7.3%		-37.0%
MSCI EAFE	-1.0%		18.6%		10.0%		-0.6%		7.7%		-43.1%
Barclays Agg Bond--US	-2.3%		-0.7%		3.5%		5.2%		4.5%		5.2%
Barclays Agg Bond--Global	-2.8%		-2.2%		3.6%		3.7%		4.8%		4.8%
Moderately Aggressive	0.3%		15.1%		12.2%		3.8%		7.2%		-32.0%
80 Flex III	-2.3%		6.9%		7.6%		5.8%		7.5%		-15.0%
80 Flex IV	-2.3%		7.2%		7.9%		6.4%		8.3%		-15.2%
80 Strategic	1.7%		21.8%		15.4%		11.0%		10.3%		-32.6%
Fidelity 80	0.4%		15.7%		12.3%		3.9%		7.3%		-32.0%
Russell Growth	-0.8%		12.6%		10.3%		2.9%		6.2%		-36.1%
NOTE 1:  Past performance is no guarantee of specific future results.  This data is presented by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  This data is from Morningstar and should be accurate, but it has not been independently verified.
NOTE 2:  "Flex" and "Strategic" portfolios are designed and managed by Potomac Wealth Strategies, LLC.  These models show track records of better returns, lower volatility, or both, compared to their benchmarks and popular competitors.
NOTE 3:  "Vanguard 80" and "Fidelity 80" portfolios are low-cost implementations of the Moderately Aggressive strategy.  They are comprised of index funds offered by Vanguard or Fidelity.  This is what many columnists and financial experts on TV would have us use.
NOTE 4:  Russell portfolios are offered by one of the most highly-regarded institutional investment advisors in the country.  These portfolios handle money for dozens of high net-worth people and famous organizations.
NOTE 5:  Nothing on this blog post represents investment advice to any individual or organization.  If the information hereon is of interest to you, please contact us at Garo.Partoyan@PotomacWealthStrategies.com for a consultation.